The stubbornly high global crude oil prices are opening up a can of worms to heightened inflation risks and likely to disrupt government's fiscal maths along with deteriorating global financial conditions.
The rupee fell 23 paise against the greenback to settle at a new all-time low of 91.01 (provisional) on Tuesday, weighed down by relentless foreign fund outflows, no breakthrough in India-US trade deal, and persistent US dollar buying.
India's peak power demand is projected to hit 270 GW this summer, surpassing last year's record of 250 GW.
Experts feel oil prices will remain volatile with an upward bias.
If crude oil prices stay at current levels, the Indian government would not be required to issue additional oil bonds to the four state-run oil marketing companies in the current financial year, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Monday. Oil retailers, however, are unlikely to cut prices of petroleum products in response to falling crude prices unless private retailers like Essar Oil and Reliance Industries Ltd restart operations and offer a lower price.
Let us start with ourselves. If we can reduce our LPG consumption by half, the problem is solved. Reduce wastage. Alter eating styles. Diversify methods of food preparation, suggests Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets are expected to track Q3 corporate earnings from several blue-chip firms, including TCS and Infosys, while inflation data and global trends would also dictate investors' sentiment, analysts said.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Iran conflict and its impact on global energy supplies during a phone call.
Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
Tyre stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, with average returns exceeding 45 per cent. Except for Apollo Tyres, which has seen a slight correction in the last month and a half, limiting its gains to 16 per cent, listed peers such as MRF, CEAT Tyres (formerly Cavi Elettrici e Affini Torino), and JK Tyre & Industries have delivered returns exceeding 30 per cent during this period. Production-related constraints and sluggish demand in Europe, where sales are expected to remain flat, coupled with high valuations, have contributed to Apollo Tyres' underperformance. The tyre sector's gains can be attributed to robust growth trends driven by the replacement market, which constitutes more than two-thirds of sales.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
India, the world's third-largest energy consumer and importer, on Wednesday warned of high oil prices hurting the nascent and fragile global economic recovery and floated an idea of long-term supply contracts that provide predictable and stable pricing. Speaking at the India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said there was a mismatch between demand for oil and the supplies producers such as OPEC+ were making and there was a case for raising the production. The world, he said, needs "predictable, stable and affordable" prices for it to recover back to pre-pandemic levels.
'Reliance on crude oil is still very high. Globally, natural gas is 25 per cent of the energy basket. In India, it has fallen to 6.5 per cent, from 11 per cent in 2014.'
The Indian basket represents the price of Oman and Dubai sour grade crude.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
India said it is broad-basing and diversifying sourcing of petroleum product to meet market conditions.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Shares of tyre manufacturers have outperformed broader equity benchmarks, buoyed by multiple tailwinds. Softer raw material prices, an uptick in demand from automakers following the reduction of the goods and services tax (GST) rates, and steady replacement demand have lifted sentiment toward the sector.
India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.
Modi made a strong case for a partnership between the producers and consumers in the oil market as it exists in other markets.
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Government's fuel subsidy estimate was based on crude oil at $70.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
Exports grew to $16.34 billion while imports rose to $27.14 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $10.79 billion in July, according to official figures released in New Delhi on Monday. On the back of increase in global prices, the crude oil import bill in July shot up by 69.3 per cent to $9.48 billion from $5.6 billion a year ago.
There has been a dramatic decline in oil prices from the high of $147 a barrel in July, to less than a third of that today. However, it is too early to say if this is a fundamental change in the direction of oil prices, resulting from the announced cuts in production by the oil-exporting countries, or a blip in a falling market. The government seems to be assuming (or hoping that it is) the latter and is rushing ahead with its price cut plan.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
Financials were the top losers while oil shares also declined amid weak crude oil prices.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
With India making it clear that the US doesn't have enough spare capacity for crude oil, Washington, DC, now wants India to sign fixed-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with American producers, multiple sources in the know said.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
During a visit to the UK, former US President Donald Trump reiterated his claim of intervening to resolve a conflict between India and Pakistan, linking it to trade negotiations. He also discussed tariffs on India for buying Russian oil and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
To meet liquidity pressure because of advance tax outflows this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a measured approach with its latest announcement of open-market operations (OMOs), worth Rs 1 trillion.
Bank shares were the top gainer in early trades with Bank of Baroda up over 4%.
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