Rising oil prices, sharp slowdown in mutual fund inflows and steep valuations remain the key risks for Indian investors going ahead.
Indian Oil Corporation's (IOC's) Q2FY26 operating profit of 14,600 crore beat Street estimates and was up 16 per cent on a sequential basis. It surged 287 per cent over the year-ago quarter on account of an improved refining performance.
A US official has stated that India's continued purchase of Russian oil is a point of contention in the relationship between the two countries, as it helps fund Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Tuesday reported halving of its March quarter net profit largely because of losses in the petrochemical business and shrinking margin after it announced a pre-election fuel price cut despite rising input costs. The net profit of Rs 4,837.69 crore in January-March compared to Rs 10,058.69 crore a year back and Rs 8,063.39 crore in the preceding October-December quarter, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
The price of crude oil has surged past $120 a barrel. Supply concerns from Opec members Nigeria and Iran as well as a weaker dollar pushed US crude prices up by $4 to $120.36 before closing at $119.97 on Monday.
On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank were the laggards. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng settled higher.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
'I have no problems with the finance ministry or with state governments treating petrol pump prices as the last resort for meeting their ambitious spending targets with very limited revenue resources.' 'But let's do away with this smokescreen of free pricing of petrol and diesel and go back to administered pricing regime,' says Dr Sudhir Bisht.
From February to mid-March, oil prices receded rapidly.
'America is adopting the typical 'my way or the highway'/'Either you are with us or against us' stance.' 'This is a policy India is not going to accept.'
Noting that the country could 'well experience the effects of an oil-price shock,' Deloitte said that political instability in West Asia and a payment crisis with Iran are causes for concern.
As crude oil prices set new records, the government-owned oil companies are working on a multi-pronged strategy to cut costs and stave off an impending crises. IOC, which is the country's largest company by sales, is cutting inventories, processing more sour crude oil which is cheaper and increasing refinery utilisation.
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
India's exports contracted 11.8 per cent to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63 per cent to $76.06 billion.
Russia's state-owned oil firm Rosneft has agreed to supply up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Indian upstream oil and gas major Reliance Industries (RIL) in the largest-ever energy deal between the two countries, Reuters reported on Thursday. The 10-year agreement amounts to 0.5 per cent of global oil supply and is valued at roughly $13 billion per year at current prices, it said.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the third day running on Friday due to weak trends in global markets and soaring crude oil prices. Foreign fund outflows also weighed on investor sentiments amid strengthening US bond yields which are nearing 5 per cent for the first time since 2007. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 231.62 points or 0.35 per cent to settle at 65,397.62.
India's top oil and gas producer ONGC on Friday reported a tripling of net profit in the June quarter as it earned record prices before the government slapped a tax on windfall profits arising from a global rally in energy rates. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) standalone net profit at Rs 15,205.85 crore, or Rs 12.09 per share, in April-June, compared to Rs 4,334.75 crore, or Rs 3.45 a share, in the same period a year back, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. Sequentially, the profit was higher than the Rs 8,859.54 crore net profit of January-March.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, NTPC, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Adani Ports & SEZ, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Zomato, Tata Motors, and IndusInd Bank were the laggards.
Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
Years of repression and disappearances have taught Venezuelans, the hard way, not to voice either their anger or their joy, observes Radha Roy Biswas who spent her formative years in Venezuela.
Analysts are enthused by BPCL's upstream foray and have re-rated the stock in the past couple of years.
The companies' underrecoveries stood at a whopping Rs 1,39,869 crore last financial year. Of that, Rs 62,837 crore was accounted for by diesel alone.
From the Sensex constituents, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Power Grid, Trent, NTPC, Maruti, HCL Tech and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
Indian rupee slipping below the record 88 level against the US dollar will enhance price competitiveness of Indian products in global markets and help exporters diversify beyond the US market, say exporters. However, import-dependent sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and electronics may see lower benefits due to a rise in input costs, they stated.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Trent, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, InterGlobe Aviation, Maruti, ITC, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India and Tata Consultancy Services were among the gainers.
As crude oil prices rose sharply, private companies like Essar Oil and Reliance Industries closed their retail outlets as they found it difficult to compete with state-owned oil companies, which were selling fuel below the production cost with support from the government. While Essar Oil has drawn up plans to re-open its retail outlets, Reliance Industries has decided not to go ahead with the retail plan
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty on Thursday gave up all early gains to settle lower as surging oil prices amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine hit investor sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex started the trade on a higher note and jumped 527.72 points in morning deals to a high of 55,996.62. However, during the afternoon trade it surrendered all its early gains and finished at 55,102.68, lower by 366.22 points or 0.66 per cent.
Investors will take cues from the December quarter corporate earnings, with blue-chips like Infosys, Reliance Industries scheduled to report their results this week, in addition, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors will also be crucial in dictating market trends, analysts said.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Monday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 705.65 points to 81,702.52 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 182.85 points to 24,929.55.
Cheaper crude oil weakens rupee even as core sector growth revives
International oil prices jumped to the highest level since 2014, topping $87 a barrel but domestic petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged for the 74th day in a row - a freeze that may be linked to ensuing assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Brent - the key global oil benchmark - soared to $87.7 per barrel mostly due to rising geopolitical tensions and supply-side disturbances due to Yemen's Houthi group's attack on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates. Also, global inventories are waning. The attack, some analysts believe, may lead to more hostile behaviour between the two power centres in the Middle East - Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
After registering a positive growth for two months, India's exports slipped into negative territory again, contracting 2.17 per cent year-on-year to $38.73 billion in May due to a fall in global petroleum prices, while trade deficit narrowed at $21.88 billion during the month.
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'The world is heading into a period of serious problems, and gold and silver are among the few ways to protect oneself.'
Oil prices were poised for a third day of gains following a rise of more than 4 percent last week after Islamic militants seized much of northern Iraq as Baghdad's forces there collapsed.
Every dollar increase in crude oil price will add Rs 4,000 crore to the overall underrecovery.
The decision to hike US H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.
oil market remained under pressure and big gains are unlikely.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) on Friday reported a 9.6 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit for the September quarter, driven by strong performance in its consumer-facing retail and telecom businesses and a recovery in its core oil-to-chemicals segment.
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